| Date: Saturday 16 March Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin Kick-off: 16:45 GMT |
| Coverage: Live text on BBC Sport website and app, BBC Radio Scotland & BBC Five 5 Live commentary |
There will be an emotional reaction from Scotland in Dublin, a willingness to scrap, a realisation that a strong finish and a first Triple Crown since 1990 is still possible.
None of the current squad were born the last time Scotland managed that feat. Coach Gregor Townsend was only 16-years-old.
The issue is that we’re up against a side that saw a possible Grand Slam go south when whipped by England. They won’t be lacking in motivation themselves.
Win the game and Ireland are champions again. In front of their own crowd. After a massive disappointment against England. On Paddy’s Weekend. They’ll be as psyched for this as Scotland will be.
Ireland have won nine in a row against Scotland and we don’t need to look too far back to find the last one – the World Cup pool game at Stade de France. Ireland were cruelly comfortable with our attack that night. It was a humiliation for Scotland who need to use the memory of it as a driver.
It was one-way traffic in Paris. For the story to change this time then Scotland will need to mix up their game. Instead of flashing the ball along the face of Ireland’s defensive line they need to tap into some of what England did on Saturday.
Physicality, variation in attack, a flawless kicking game that applies constant pressure, excellent discipline, tempo, power. Every facet has to be spot-on.
Ireland score a huge percentage of their tries off lineout starter plays. Scotland need to cause chaos on that front. Look at the Ben Earl try last weekend. An Irish lineout disrupted, an Earl surge downfield, Peter O’Mahony scrambling back and getting binned amid the mayhem. And then Earl scored in the phases that followed.
It was frenetic stuff. The English blitz defence shut Ireland down save for the two brilliant tries they scored, both originating with lineouts. When they get into that kind of rhythm they deliver masterclasses, as Scotland witnessed at the World Cup.
England were having none of it. Scotland can’t allow Ireland to settle, can’t give them easy footholds and soft shoulders, They have to cause total bedlam for 80 minutes, if that’s possible.
In this column, before the World Cup game, I remember talking about the different shots that Scotland needed to fire and I’m saying it again now. Scotland’s carriers need to be unrelenting. Everything they do needs to be close to perfect.
Did Scotland go off script in Rome reverse?
Rome was maddening for everyone. When looking at the stats we see that there was a big shift in either the pre-planned strategy compared to rounds 1-3 or an on-field deviation from the game plan by players.
With the pressure on did they have a collective rush of blood to the head in going away from the script? Only Gregor, the coaching staff and the players will know the answer to that question.
Was this an intentional shift away from what they did in the first three games or was it just the players going off piste? What I mean is this – Scotland went from a kicking game to a passing game. In rounds 1-3 their average number of passes per match was 120. Against Italy it was 244. They kept ball in hand to manipulate and overpower Italy and for half an hour it worked. And then it really, really didn’t.
Scotland’s total passing metres in rounds 1-3 was 741, in Italy it was more than 1,500. In-play kicks in rounds 1-3 were an average of 37. In Italy that came down to 22. The kicking dropped and the passing rose.
I know that’s a lot of numbers to get your head around, but they illustrate a different way of playing in Rome compared to what we saw in the two wins and the near-win that went before it.
Finn Russell and Ben White kicked more ball in the first three games than any other players from any other country. That kicking game had served them well whereas in Rome, either pre-game or mid-game, they decided they had the power and technical ability to take the game to Italy with ball in hand.
In the early minutes they were ruthless but as the game went on we saw the unforced errors, the little bits that fell apart in the heat of the contest.
‘Desperately tight’ tournament
As a Scotland fan, will we ever get that consistency of performance? That’s the eternal question. I still say we have a small player pool and we manage to bang out incredible performances. We long for the days when we knock over the titans all in one season, but there’s an acceptance that we’ll fall off the horse from time to time.
I still feel that this team is evolving and improving, but this competition is tough. England beat Ireland who beat France who beat Scotland who beat England who beat Italy who beat Scotland.
I’m wary of wading into the Scottish boys because they were a bad refereeing call away from being three from three going to Rome and I think Rome was one that got away. It’s a horrible feeling.
The infuriating nature of that result means that Scotland can still finish fifth. They can also finish first (I know, I know…) or second. It’s desperately tight.
Scotland can’t, and won’t, wallow in the what-might-have-beens of Rome. They have a chance, and they’re massive underdogs, to finish with a historic flourish in Dublin.
Would you call it redemption? Maybe. It would certainly be sensational. One last push. One more chance to show that they can mix it with the very best, an opportunity to end the campaign on a high and with a Triple Crown.
Nothing in this competition is harder than the mission that awaits Scotland on Saturday.
Johnnie Beattie was talking to BBC Scotland’s Tom English
