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IMF upgrades global growth forecast as tariffs ease

July 29, 2025
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted stronger global economic growth than it forecast in April in part due to some US tariffs on goods being softened.

A surge in US imports as firms tried to beat impending higher import taxes and actions by some governments to boost growth bumped up its latest forecast.

However, higher tariffs and more uncertainty could lead to weaker growth and slower economic activity, the IMF warned.

Meanwhile, UK growth is predicted to be 1.2% this year, and 1.4% in 2026, unchanged from revised forecasts set out in May.

The UK is set to be the third fastest growing economy out the world’s so-called most advanced economies this year and the next, after US and Canada.

The IMF, which is a group of 190 countries that work together to try to stabilise the global economy, said the upgrade to its global predictions included so-called trade “front-loading” in recent months – referring to the rush of imports into the US.

It forecast global growth of 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, up from 2.8% and 3% in its April report.

American firms rushed products into the country earlier this year to try to get ahead of new taxes on imports pledged by President Donald Trump.

The IMF said this created risks that could add to any future economic shocks, including companies, having too much stock, making future imports less necessary.

Also, firms may have to pay more to store goods, and there was also a risk of items becoming obsolete, it said.



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