Wales are past the halfway mark of the Six Nations campaign and are still waiting for a first win.
There was plenty to both condemn and admire about the performances against Scotland and England.
And there were glimmers of potential in the defeat to defending champions Ireland in Dublin.
Here are some views on the campaign so far from the Scrum V podcast team plus this week’s guests, former Ireland hooker and Dragons coach Bernard Jackman and rugby analyst Sam Larner.
Gatland’s game plan?
“It’s hard because Wales are not winning enough front-foot ball and have not been in control long enough for us to see the plan,” said Jackman.
“It certainly appears far less structured than [Warren] Gatland teams of the past. Wales are trying to play fast but they don’t build phase attacks that really ask questions.
“It’s just about trying to win a collision then spinning it wide as fast as you can. But the best defences can stay on top of those half breaks.”
In each of their three Six Nations games to date this year, Wales have failed to score in one of the halves.
They had five entries into the Irish 22 and spent more time in the so-called red zone, but managed just 1.4 points per entry, compared to Ireland’s 3.11. That symbolised a red zone efficiency of just 20% for Wales.
Part of the reason for that statistic has been Wales’ decision to repeatedly turn down the chance to kick penalties at goal. In fact, you have to go back to the World Cup for the last time Wales scored a penalty kick.
“You can’t go 40 minutes in Test rugby without scoring,” said Larner.
“That’s where Wales have been a little naive, in not kicking those penalties. Even in the massive win over Australia, 18 points came from penalties, so keeping the scoreboard ticking over is vital.”
Narrow attack
Against England, the majority of Wales’ carries were within 10 metres of the breakdown.
Wales’ scrum-halves, Tomos Williams and Kieran Hardy, passed the ball 1.3 metres shorter than their England counterparts across all their 81 passes, which adds up to a big difference.
It was a similar story against Ireland as Wales’ attack narrowed.
“If Wales were not immediately at the breakdown then it ended with Ireland stealing the ball or Wales [getting] penalised,” said Larner.
“But it’s incredibly hard to play like that because you end up clustering attackers with relentless pick and goes. You could feel there was a nervousness to move the ball even 10 or 15 metres away for fear of being isolated.”
Part of the problem is a lack of gainline success, with Wales bottom of the table for linebreaks.
Throughout the tournament so far, only a third of Wales’ carries have actually taken them over the gainline. Against England, their success rate was as low as 29%.
When you are continually being knocked back, momentum is lost and the only viable option left is to kick.
Young side showing ‘guts’
This young team is having to learn on the job – and fast.
Once Wales got the lineout maul functioning it turned into a real weapon against Scotland.
They won the red-zone battle with England and were more efficient at getting points, while the lineout improved against Ireland (83%) and the defence was commendable.
“Defensively Wales had the physicality. They’re incredibly brave and that’s a foundation stone,” said Jackman.
“The comeback against Scotland, first half against England and the way they hung in against Ireland showed guts.”
Wales flanker Tommy Reffell leads the statistics throughout the Six Nations for the most defensive rucks (43) and most breakdown steals (six), while he is also in the top four tacklers along with Wales captain Dafydd Jenkins.
Despite Wales’ three defeats, full-back Cameron Winnett has emerged as a future star.
The 21-year-old has made the most metres in the Six Nations, ahead of even Ireland’s James Lowe or Scotland’s try-machine Duhan van der Merwe.
Wainwright a key man
With so many rookies being blooded at the same time by Gatland, much was needed from the likes of Aaron Wainwright to lead by example.
The Dragons number eight has proved to be a talisman for Wales as he continues to fill the gap left by Taulupe Faletau.
A try-scorer in his man-of-the-match display in the opener against Scotland, he has maintained strong form throughout the tournament.
He has carried the ball more than any other Welshman, made more linebreaks and is level with Italy’s Federico Luzza for the most lineouts won.
How to beat France?
Wales next face France in Cardiff on 10 March.
Les Bleus are reeling after escaping with a 13-13 draw at home to Italy and are likely to see centre Jonathan Danty suspended for his red card in that game.
There are also concerns over the fitness of fly-half Matthieu Jalibert.
“If Wales can handle the forward power that will come at them through the likes of [Uini] Atonio and [Posolo] Tuilagi then their game plan can work,” said Jackman, who coached for six years in France with Grenoble.
“The media and public in France will be going after the team after that draw with Italy, which will feel like a loss. The backs look miles off it and their discipline has been poor.
“Fabien Galthie looks so isolated now that some of the coaching staff have left after the World Cup. Apparently the mood in the camp is horrible and they’re playing like a team where the atmosphere is off.”
