Australia (best possible finish: 76.32%)

Following India’s slip-ups against New Zealand, the equation is pretty simple for Australia: win five of their last seven matches and they’ll go to Lord’s for a chance to defend their title.

Four wins could be enough but anything under five and other results become a factor.

India (best possible finish: 69.30%)

New Zealand’s historic 3-0 win in India has made it much tougher for the two-time beaten finalists to reach a third straight WTC final.

It is still in their hands, though, but they need to win four Tests in Australia to guarantee a place in the showpiece game next summer.

Sri Lanka (best possible finish: 69.23%)

As with Australia, it’s a fairly straightforward scenario for Sri Lanka. Win all four of their remaining matches in the cycle and they will be in the final.

That won’t be easy against fellow contenders South Africa and Australia but three wins and a defeat might still be enough depending on results elsewhere.

New Zealand (best possible finish: 64.29%)

A historic series clean sweep in India has kept New Zealand, Test champions in 2021, in with a chance of returning to the final.

Even victory in all three of their Tests at home to England would not assure them of a top-two place but it would give them a very good chance.

South Africa (best possible finish: 69.44%)

As it stands, the Proteas require four wins from four to be completely sure of a berth in the final.

Three wins and a draw would give them a strong chance, while even three wins and a loss would not completely end their chances.

However, in both instances, they would need other results to go their way.

England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies are no longer in contention to reach the final.

But, of course, it is worth noting that it could all change again if any side is deducted points for a slow over-rate, as five teams have in this cycle, including both England and Australia during the 2023 Ashes.