The maths is stark. Three into two won’t go.
Britain has three leading names in the men’s 200m freestyle, all seeking Olympic places. Tom Dean is the Olympic champion. Duncan Scott won silver at Tokyo 2020. Matt Richards won gold at the 2023 world championships.
All three will line up in the event at the British Swimming Championships in London this week – the meet that doubles as Britain’s Olympic and Paralympic trials.
The catch? Only two can qualify for the event in Paris this summer.
“It is scary because if it goes wrong, you are not going – it is that difficult,” Richards told the BBC.
“But I can’t wait. I will be really excited that morning. It will then be about trying to keep it cool and stay composed ready for the race.”
An Englishman, a Scot and an Welshman, the trio are team-mates, friends and rivals who won relay gold together alongside James Guy at the last Olympics in Tokyo.
England’s Dean and Scotland’s Scott have spent time as room-mates while Wales’ Richards, the youngest of the three at 21, has been tipped as the next big thing in British swimming.
Both he and Dean want to become the first Briton to win five medals at a single Olympics.
The current record is four, held by Scott.
When Dean won Olympic gold in the event in Tokyo, he pipped Scott to the touch by just 0.04 seconds.
When Richards produced a shock to beat Dean in the 2023 world championships, the margin of victory was even less – a mere 0.02 seconds.
“I love the rivalries between us all,” Richards told BBC Wales.
“We’re all really good friends first, which makes it quite special.
“But when we are in the water, we’re all competitors and we all want to beat each other.
“There is a lot of pressure on it, but at the same time we all want to see each other do well. Maybe just one one hundredth less well than yourself!”
While Dean is the champion and Richards the rising star, Scott is the elder statesman at 26.
He was considering his future in the sport after a difficult 2023 dogged by illness and mixed results.
Scott has found form this year, however, and has likened the build-up to the 200m freestyle British showdown to the end of a boxing match with each convinced he has done enough to win.
“Whether I’m lying or telling the truth, I’ve got to say that I’m fully, fully believing,” the Scot, who will also contest the 100m freestyle against Dean and Richards, plus the 200m individual medley alongside Dean, told BBC Sport last month.
“I’m confident in the work that I’ve done for sure. I think that’s really exciting, especially given where I was at last year.”
