There are plenty of European heavyweights still outside those top eight positions, with Manchester City, in 10th, and Arsenal, 12th after losing to Inter Milan, on seven points and therefore not on pace to hit the 16-point target.
However, Pep Guardiola’s side remain favourites to win the competition for a second time, still with a 91.1% chance of reaching the last 16 and a 19.3% chance of claiming the trophy.
Arsenal are given an 80.0% chance of progressing to the last 16 but also a 58.4% chance of having to go through the knockout round play-off to do so.
City have Juventus and Paris St-Germain among their remaining fixtures, while Arsenal must face high-flying Sporting and Monaco in their next two.
Celtic are 15th and also on seven points, having boosted their hopes with a second win, beating Leipzig 3-1 on Tuesday. They visit Villa in the final match on Wednesday, 29 January, when all 36 teams will play at the same time.
Celtic’s latest victory means Brendan Rodgers’ side – on the same points as the likes of Juventus (11th), Bayern Munich (17th) and Real Madrid (18th) – have a strong chance of making the top 24 (78.2%), with their last 16 hopes rated at 40.2%.
French champions Paris St-Germain are the biggest name outside the top 24, having won just one of their first four games and with City and Bayern Munich to come. The 2020 finalists are now given only a 43.4% chance of making the last 16.
