The race for a place in the World Cup semi-finals is hotting up, with nine sides still in contention for a top-four finish.
Hosts India are safely into the last four and South Africa look almost certain to join them, while Australia and New Zealand currently occupy the remaining qualification positions.
But the chasing pack, even holders England, know a late run of results could see them make it through instead.
The top seven will also qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy alongside hosts Pakistan, though eighth place will be enough if Pakistan seal a top-seven finish.
This what each team needs from their remaining games.
2023 Cricket World Cup table
| India (Q) | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2.102 | 14 | 18 |
| South Africa | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2.290 | 12 | 16 |
| Australia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.970 | 8 | 14 |
| New Zealand | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0.484 | 8 | 12 |
| Afghanistan | 7 | 4 | 3 | -0.33 | 8 | 12 |
| Pakistan | 7 | 3 | 4 | -0.024 | 6 | 10 |
| Sri Lanka | 7 | 2 | 5 | -1.162 | 4 | 8 |
| Netherlands | 7 | 2 | 5 | -1.398 | 4 | 8 |
| Bangladesh (E) | 7 | 1 | 6 | -1.446 | 2 | 6 |
| England | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1.652 | 2 | 8 |
Teams are split on points, then by number of wins and then net run-rate. Top four qualify for semi-finals.
Chances of qualifying for semi-finals (according to CricViz and up to date as of 3 November): South Africa 100%, India 100%, Australia 90%, New Zealand 70%, Pakistan 20%, Afghanistan 19%, England 0.3%, Sri Lanka 0.2%, Bangladesh 0%, Netherlands 0%.
India
Current points: 14 Maximum points possible: 18
India are guaranteed a semi-final place after their victory over Sri Lanka and can now focus on securing top spot.
South Africa
Current points: 12 Maximum points possible: 16
South Africa have likely already done enough to reach the semi-finals. One win from their remaining two games would guarantee a spot, though other results could see them through without another victory.
Verdict: Would be a massive surprise if they failed to make the knockout phase from here. Nearly there.
Australia
Current points: 8 Maximum points possible: 14
Australia will need three wins from their remaining three group games to be guaranteed of a place in the final four. Two wins, or even one or none, may be enough depending on other results.
Verdict: The momentum is with them to reach the last four after overcoming a sticky start. Should progress.
New Zealand
Current points: 8 Maximum points possible: 12
New Zealand should still make the semi-finals, but three successive defeats will have created nerves in their camp. Defeat to Pakistan would open the door to their opponents and leave the Black Caps needing a win against Sri Lanka to secure their spot. And net run-rate could be a factor.
Verdict: Should make it, but the Pakistan match will be a tense one.
Pakistan
Current points: 6 Maximum points possible: 10
Pakistan need to beat New Zealand in their next match or they will be eliminated. They could go through if they then lost their final game to England but that requires Australia and New Zealand to not pick up another win and Pakistan to improve their net run-rate.
Realistically, Pakistan need to win both of their remaining games, and that may not be enough.
Verdict: Have kept themselves in the mix, but may have left it too late.
Afghanistan
Current points: 8 Maximum points possible: 12
Victory against the Netherlands has kept their semi-final hopes alive, but they have tough games to come against Australia and South Africa. Afghanistan need to win both those games, or win one and hope New Zealand lose against Pakistan for it to be decided on net run-rate.
Verdict: Have given themselves a chance with four big wins, but still a very tough ask from here.
Sri Lanka
Current points: 4 Maximum points possible: 8
To reach the semi-finals they need to win both of their final two games, but that requires Australia, Afghanistan and New Zealand to lose their remaining matches and for Sri Lanka to significantly improve their net run-rate.
A win for New Zealand over Pakistan will see them eliminated.
Verdict: A heavy defeat by India has made it extremely tough. Highly unlikely to say the least.
Netherlands
Current points: 4 Maximum points possible: 8
They need to win their next two games, and need Australia and New Zealand to lose their remaining matches and to improve their net run-rate.
A win for New Zealand over Pakistan will see them eliminated.
Verdict: A very big ask. Would need to pull off a few shock wins and a specific set of results elsewhere go in their favour. Highly unlikely.
Bangladesh
Current points: 2 Maximum points possible: 6
Bangladesh are eliminated after their defeat by Pakistan in their seventh match.
England
Current points: 2 Maximum points possible: 8
The World Cup holders need three wins from their remaining three matches while dramatically improving their run-rate and an extraordinary set of results elsewhere to reach the semi-finals.
A win for New Zealand over Pakistan will see them eliminated.
Verdict: Barely a hope with in-form Australia to come in their next match. Praying for a miracle.
How is net run-rate calculated?
Run-rate is the average number of runs scored per over by a team in their entire innings – so, for example, a score of 300 off 50 overs equals six runs per over.
Net run-rate is calculated by subtracting the opposition’s run-rate from the other team’s run-rate.
The winning side will therefore have a positive net run-rate, and the losers a negative net run-rate.
In a tournament, net run-rate is worked out by taking the average runs per over scored by that team in each game and subtracting the average runs per over scored against them in each game.
If a team is bowled out inside their allotted overs, their run-rate is calculated by dividing the runs by the maximum overs they could have batted – 50 overs in the case of this tournament.
