Nottingham Forest boss Nuno Espirito Santo said his side must “ignore the noise” after they gained a much-needed victory in the race for Premier League survival.

“It was tough to take when the points were taken from us,” said Nuno. “But we stick together, let’s ignore the noise and try to do our job. There’s still a long way to go.”

The top-flight relegation battle has intensified in recent weeks as Everton, another team in trouble after receiving a six-point deduction on appeal for financial breaches, gained a vital point against Newcastle to move four clear of 18th-placed Luton.

Meanwhile, Burnley may have given themselves a chance after they extended their unbeaten run to four matches with a draw against Wolves.

Back-to-back draws for Sheffield United have given them a glimmer of hope, while Luton also remain in the bottom three as both face tough games at Liverpool and Arsenal.

So, who will be playing Championship football next season and who will be enjoying at least one more year in the Premier League? Who needs what to stay up and what do our data experts predict will happen?

BBC Sport takes a closer look at the state of play at the bottom of the Premier League.

It’s complicated…

While Nottingham Forest’s four-point deduction has been applied, they will appeal the decision, which could complicate matters for them.

Everton had a 10-point deduction imposed in November, which was reduced to six on appeal in February, for PSR breaches in the three-year period up to and including 2021-22.

However, in January, they were charged again over alleged breaches in their accounts for 2022-23.

If they are found to have breached financial rules again, they face another points deduction. A verdict is expected during April and would be subject to appeal.

Any appeals could take that process to 24 May, the week after the season concludes on 19 May, although the belief is any appeal would be sorted before the final day.

Current table

The run-in

Brentford: 3 April v Brighton (home); 6 April v Aston Villa (away); 13 April v Sheffield Utd (home); 20 April v Luton (away); 27 April v Everton (away); 4 May v Fulham (home); 11 May v Bournemouth (away); 19 May v Newcastle (home).

Everton: 6 April v Burnley (home); 15 April v Chelsea (away); 21 April v Nottm Forest (home); 24 April v Liverpool (home); 27 April v Brentford (home); 4 May v Luton (away); 11 May v Sheffield Utd (home); 19 May v Arsenal (away).

Nottingham Forest: 7 April v Tottenham (away); 13 April v Wolves (home); 21 April v Everton (away); 27 April v Manchester City (home); 4 May v Sheffield Utd (away); 11 May v Chelsea (home); 19 May v Burnley (away).

Luton Town: 3 April v Arsenal (away); 6 April v Bournemouth (home); 13 April v Manchester City (away); 20 April v Brentford (home); 28 April v Wolves (away); 4 May v Everton (home); 11 May v West Ham (away); 19 May v Fulham (home).

Burnley: 6 April v Everton (away); 13 April v Brighton (home); 20 April v Sheffield Utd (away); 27 April v Manchester United (away); 4 May v Newcastle (home); 11 May v Tottenham (away); 19 May v Nottm Forest (home).

Sheffield United: 4 April v Liverpool (away); 7 April v Chelsea (home); 13 April v Brentford (away); 20 April v Burnley (home); 24 April v Manchester United (away); 27 April v Newcastle (away); 4 May v Nottm Forest (home); 11 May v Everton (away); 19 May v Tottenham (home).

What do the prediction models suggest?