Business reporters, BBC News
Getty ImagesA sell-off in the US stock market gathered steam on Monday, fuelled by rising concern about the cost of the trade war to the world’s largest economy.
The S&P 500, which tracks the biggest American companies, fell about 2% in early trade, while the Dow Jones dropped 0.9% and the Nasdaq sank more than 3.5%.
The falls came after President Donald Trump ducked questions about whether the US economy was facing a recession or price rises as a result of tariff moves, while warning instead of a “period of transition”.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, however, insisted there would be no contraction in the US, although he acknowledged that the price of some goods may rise.
Investors fear that tariffs – which are taxes on goods applied as they enter the country – will lead to higher prices and ultimately dent growth in the world’s largest economy.
“The level of tariffs that Trump is imposing, I think no doubt, will have to cause inflation somewhere down the line,” Rachel Winter, investment manager at Killik & Co, told the Today programme.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian said investors had been optimistic about Trump’s plans for de-regulation and lower taxes, while under-estimating the likelihood of a trade war.
He said the recent falls in the stock market, which started last week, reflect the adjustment of those bets.
“It’s a complete change in what the market expected,” he said, noting that investors are also responding to signs that businesses and households are starting to hold off on spending amid the uncertainty, which could hurt economic growth.
Tesla shares fell about 8% on Monday, while tech stocks Nvidia and Meta were both down more than 4%.
Speaking to Fox News in an interview broadcast on Sunday but recorded on Thursday, Trump appeared to acknowledge the concerns, responding to a question about whether the US was facing recession: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.”
“It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us,” he added.
The US president has accused China, Mexico and Canada of not doing enough to end the flow of illegal drugs and migrants into the US. The three countries have rejected the accusations.
He imposed new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada last week, but then exempted many of those goods just two days later.
Trump also doubled a blanket tariff on goods from China to 20%.
The US is now facing retaliation, including new tit-for-tat tariffs from China targeting US farm products that came into effect on Monday.
They mean US exports including chicken, beef, pork, wheat, and soybeans face new tariffs of 10% to 15%.
Ontario premier Doug Ford, who leads Canada’s most populous province, also said he was going forward with a 25% surcharge on energy exports to the US, announced in retaliation for the tariffs.
If Trump escalates, “I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely,” he warned.
Speaking on NBC on Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledged: “Foreign goods may get a little more expensive”.
“But American goods are going to get cheaper,” he said.
But when asked whether the US economy could face a recession he added: “Absolutely not… There’s going to be no recession in America.”
Former US Commerce Department official, Frank Lavin, told the BBC that he thinks the trade war is unlikely to escalate out of control.
But while tariffs will eventually “fade a bit” they will still be an “extra burden on the US economy,” he said.
Han Shen Lin, China country director at consultancy firm The Asia Group, told the BBC’s Today programme: “You’re seeing a lot of tit for tat between both sides to demonstrate that neither side will back off easily.
“That said China has realised it probably can’t export its way to GDP growth in the way that it used to so it is focusing a lot more on the domestic economy right now.”
