The rate of excess deaths in London is falling at a faster pace than in the rest of England and Wales as all parts of the country move past the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.
London recorded 1,033 excess deaths in the week ending 1 May. Three quarters of them mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Excess deaths refer to the number of deaths from all causes registered in any week, which are above the five-year average for that week of the year.
The week ending 17 April was the worst in the capital with over 2,200 excess deaths.
But by the week ending 1 May both the South-East and the North-West of England registered a larger number of excess deaths than London for that week.
Covid-19 deaths
The same pattern can be seen with deaths specifically linked to Covid-19.
The week ending 1 May was the first since coronavirus arrived in Britain in which London did not register the highest number of Covid-19 deaths.
The South East had the highest weekly count, with 967 death certificates mentioning a confirmed or suspected case of the disease.
Every region of England and Wales has passed the peak of the pandemic – London, the West Midlands, the North West and Wales recorded their peak in the week ending 17 April.
The South East, South West, East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber regions all recorded their worst week of deaths in the week to 24 April.
Regions with a later peak have tended to see a more gradual decline in the number of excess deaths.
Worse than the Blitz
London recorded 22 per cent of the total number of Covid-19 deaths in England and Wales until 1 May, despite having only 15% of the population.
In the four weeks to 24 April, more people were killed by coronavirus in London than died during the worst four-week period of aerial bombing of the city during the Blitz in World War Two.
Registered deaths in London attributed to Covid-19, in those four weeks, reached 5,901 according to the ONS.
Whereas figures held in the National Archives, and collated by the Commonwealth War Graves Commission, show that 4,677 people were killed during the Blitz and buried in London cemeteries in the 28 days to 4 October 1940.
“These are the best figures available for the civilian deaths in the Blitz,” said Richard Overy, professor of history at the University of Exeter.
“This dramatic war on civilians has come to symbolise the horrors of total war, with the images of burning and ruined buildings and bodies dug out from the rubble.”
“All the more poignant is the contrast with the current epidemic which killed considerably more people in 28 days in London’s hospitals and care homes.”
Most deprived areas
Separate ONS data released on 1 May shows that, once you take the age of population into account, the rate of deaths involving Covid-19 is roughly twice as high in the most deprived areas of England and Wales as in the least deprived.
“We know that people in more deprived areas are less likely to have jobs where they can work from home,” said Helen Barnard from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
“This means they may have to face a very significant drop in income or keep going to work, facing greater risks of catching virus. They are also more likely to live in overcrowded homes, increasing the risk for whole families.”
The data shows that the highest rates of deaths involving Covid-19 are in inner-city areas where lots of people live close together.
The majority of the highest age-standardised mortality rates are in London boroughs, such as Newham, Brent and Hackney.
Other factors
One of the biggest issues for policymakers over the coming weeks will be to try to establish what other factors may be causing the current surge in excess deaths.
Further deaths from Covid-19 will continue to happen despite the lockdown measures.
But it will also be vital to establish how many deaths may be happening because of the restrictions, if people are not getting the treatment or support they need for other health conditions.
Other nations’ figures
National Records Scotland releases figures on a slightly different timescale. In the week to 3 May, there were 1,673 deaths registered in Scotland. That’s 55 per cent higher than the five-year average for this week, of 1,079. Around a third of the death certificates mentioned Covid-19.
The Glasgow area has been by far the worst hit by the virus.
In Northern Ireland for the week ending 1 May there were 427 deaths registered, up from the five-year average of 320. Covid-19 was mentioned on 128 death certificates.
This piece has been updated to reflect the latest statistics.
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